> GDP was up 2.5% last quarter, so no, we're not in a recession
That both starts with a false premise and, more critically, is an invalid argument.
First, the GDP grew at a 2.5% annualized rate last quarter (Q4 2017), it wasn't up 2.5%.
Second, the definition you provide indicates that recession is normally visible in a set of variables, but not that it can be conclusively ruled out when it is not visible in one variable in that set.
Third, and most critically, the condition of the economy last quarter doesn't tell you whether we are in a recession now, only, at best, whether we were last quarter.
That both starts with a false premise and, more critically, is an invalid argument.
First, the GDP grew at a 2.5% annualized rate last quarter (Q4 2017), it wasn't up 2.5%.
Second, the definition you provide indicates that recession is normally visible in a set of variables, but not that it can be conclusively ruled out when it is not visible in one variable in that set.
Third, and most critically, the condition of the economy last quarter doesn't tell you whether we are in a recession now, only, at best, whether we were last quarter.