trademark doesn't cover descriptive language. saying it is an HDMI port is trademarked. Saying it is compatible with HDMI cables and displays is a purely descriptive statement.
actually they've down much quieter in the past 40 years. e.g. the 787 dreamliner has wavy bits on the exit of the nozzle that reduce efficiency by 1% in exchange for quieter operation because making the engine quieter reduces the amount and weight of noise insulation in the cabin
Oh of course, I didn’t mean to say that they weren’t as quiet as they need to be, only that there ought to be some obvious noise reduction opportunities once the requirement to be airborne is gone, and once the machine is being used for torque instead of thrust.
imo the most likely answer is that asml funds a second source for the optics that isn't US controlled and starts shipping to China. The US is losing influence fast.
It would likely take ASML decades to develop an alternative EUV light source not encumbered by US defense technology, at which time it may not matter.
Everyone is still dependent on a single American manufacturer for this tech after decades of development. This strongly suggests that it is considerably more difficult than just "funding a second source".
One of the big problems here is that all of the hardware companies have been burned by hype before (e.g. crypto). No one actually believes that these AI companies will still be around in 5 years so spending billions to build factories for them doesn't make sense.
I don't know what companies will be around 5 years from now, but I would bet there will be more demand for RAM and the price per GB will be at least what it was before this price shock.
RAM is a very cyclical market, historically. You can look at $MU historical charts and kind of see that it trades like a cyclical (compare it to $RIO, for example).
Cyclical companies are easily burned by investing in infrastructure right at the peak. It happens all the time with little mining companies, and I think DRAM manufacturers are sort of the mining companies of tech.
Cyclical markets are the sort of thing 'National Strategic Reserves' should address...
Am I crazy for wanting this to be in Full ECC RAM modules suitable for composition into many device factors with hope that we'll finally go to reliable memory for all markets as a result?
It wouldn't shock me if this is actually just market manipulation. OpenAI in the past year seems to be operating more and more like a pump and dump machine. Their recent AMD deal seems to have been AMD giving them a bunch of stock for free in exchange for them announcing that they would use AMD GPUs for training, and OpenAI doesn't have any fab equipment so the only thing they can do with 40% of the global dram supply is sell it to someone else.
It's market manipulation. You get a chase going (panic buying) by those that are short (need to buy memory in the future). Run up the price on those shorts and squeeze them out as they chase price higher, meanwhile you bought in low and can distribute out your supply when you see fit, or run it up higher until everyone is wrecked. If I were the memory makers I wouldn't want to cede control to openai, you'd rather have a healthy, steady ecosystem than a rigged market that people don't want to be involved in.
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