The good news, such as it is, is that most of that competition is shit. The quantity of games is huge. The quantity of ones people play is not, and generally correlates with quality. Be interesting, be notable, and find ways to differentiate, and you have a much better chance. Get on Greenlight, get on Steam, be excellent enough to get on the radar of the new consoles (indie dev programs for both are underway). This is not easy, but it isn't impossible--I know two devs building their first game with a PS4 target.

(Also, avoiding the mobile market is probably wise. Competition is a lot harder there, and the games people generally gravitate towards so much simpler, that the barriers really are low there.)