> Of the four YC partners, she is the best judge of people, and that's the main thing we're judging at this early stage.
"Best judge of people" is sufficiently nonspecific to not be a testable claim.
If you mean she is best at judging who would be the most successful if you fund them, you lack the evidence to make that claim, as you don't know what would have happened with all the people you didn't fund, which is almost all of them.
If you mean that the ones that she picked -- but you didn't -- performed better than the ones you picked -- but she didn't -- it's possible that she is valuable not because she is so accurate, but that you are so inaccurate.
The notion that YC is especially good at choosing successes is not borne out by your results, or you'd all be a lot richer. And as mentioned, you don't know which were the ones that "got away" -- founders that went back to school because they didn't get in, but would have been even larger successes. Reddit would have been in that group if you hadn't had a last-minute change of heart.
As for the relentless founders, was it really that difficult to recognize that Sam Altman was one of those people? For the obvious cases, it's apparent to all four of you; and for the less-obvious cases, you lack the data to know how many were false negatives. All you know is the false positives; but that's going to be the most common outcome anyway.
Being ramen profitable working on something you don't especially like is silly compared to what you COULD be making at jobs in the Bay Area. A website is not a startup, and most of them lack any major potential, barring irrational market exuberance.
Considering Yahoo! Paid 6 billion for Broadcast.com and 4 billion for Geocities shortly after paying 95 million for ViaWeb just shows the most important skill is finding someone with billions of dollars and talking them into throwing it away on your unprofitable business.
"Best judge of people" is sufficiently nonspecific to not be a testable claim.
If you mean she is best at judging who would be the most successful if you fund them, you lack the evidence to make that claim, as you don't know what would have happened with all the people you didn't fund, which is almost all of them.
If you mean that the ones that she picked -- but you didn't -- performed better than the ones you picked -- but she didn't -- it's possible that she is valuable not because she is so accurate, but that you are so inaccurate.
The notion that YC is especially good at choosing successes is not borne out by your results, or you'd all be a lot richer. And as mentioned, you don't know which were the ones that "got away" -- founders that went back to school because they didn't get in, but would have been even larger successes. Reddit would have been in that group if you hadn't had a last-minute change of heart.
As for the relentless founders, was it really that difficult to recognize that Sam Altman was one of those people? For the obvious cases, it's apparent to all four of you; and for the less-obvious cases, you lack the data to know how many were false negatives. All you know is the false positives; but that's going to be the most common outcome anyway.
Being ramen profitable working on something you don't especially like is silly compared to what you COULD be making at jobs in the Bay Area. A website is not a startup, and most of them lack any major potential, barring irrational market exuberance.
Considering Yahoo! Paid 6 billion for Broadcast.com and 4 billion for Geocities shortly after paying 95 million for ViaWeb just shows the most important skill is finding someone with billions of dollars and talking them into throwing it away on your unprofitable business.