A risky bet can give back much more than 3x the money. Take this absurd one for ... | Hacker News

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		concats 8 days ago \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in whic... A risky bet can give back much more than 3x the money. Take this absurd one for example, it seems like it's offering up to 9x on a yes bet right now: https://polymarket.com/event/us-civil-war-before-2027 (I don't know how much volume is available, nor do I endorse betting on either side of things like this)

smeej 6 days ago [–]

For a few shares, sure, but not if you come in at 10% of the whole market in volume. That would eat a huge chunk of the open order book, causing a massive trading wick. You can't buy very many shares at that 9x value.

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