Point of curiosity: the community prediction is, presumably, an arithmetic mean, but I argue that is not a good model for a dataset that almost certainly gets more dense closer to the present, creating a gradient out into the future. It would be great to see the geometric mean as well.

Don't the cross-investments mean that if any of the AI behemoths (of which, perhaps surprisingly, Oracle is one) goes down, they all go down? Sundar Pichai even went on the front page of the BBC to state as much, and that despite Google probably being the most insulated of the bunch.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy7vrd8k4eo

Pretty sure you can actually put money on this. I'm sure there's an option trader who reads HN who can tell us best approach...

It's worthless now, the 'AI boosters or I go broke crowd' - a significant section of the posters here - got to it. It was a lot different a few minutes ago.

An option trader would bet on the volatility index of the predictions, instead of the prediction itself.

looking forward to recommendations - i assume it's not easy to come up with an objectifiable state of affairs for "bubble has popped"

My very firm timeframe is an economic crash before 2030 and a 10% increase in global unemployment before 2035.

Is Polymarket taking bets on this yet?

And any day now people will wise up and the industrial revolution bubble will burst and we'll all go back to pastoralism. Unfortunately I'm not finding an ETF for pastoralism.

When it pops, you won't need to ask. The answer will be obvious to everyone.

The current AI bubble is a case study in how capitalist markets can be rigged by large companies.