I wrote a concrete expected‑value model for AGI that anchors rewards in the 15–30T USD Western white‑collar payroll, adds spillovers on 60T GDP, includes transition costs, and varies probability explicitly. Three scenarios (optimistic, mid, pessimistic) show when the bet is rational versus value‑destroying—no mysticism, just plug‑and‑play numbers. If you’re debating AGI’s payoff, benchmark it against actual payroll and GDP, not vibes.

Read: https://pythonic.ninja/blog/2025-11-15-ev-of-agi-for-western...