He's predicted 20 of the last 2 recessions, so there's that.

Has he or are you just repeating a funny joke?

He has. He’s notably been burned a few times, one of the worst of which was 2021 TSLA. Iirc he was early but not wrong, with the 2022 collapse of all things ARKK related crashing and burning.

He was in early for the 2008 recession as well, but that is generally better than being in late (as most of us were).

He's been bearish for the last n years. His Twitter handle is Cassandra because he tries to warn people about impending doom, but nobody listens. He gave up at one point because he tweeted SELL and then everything was fine.

tl;dr he's a perma bear.

I actually don't think he's wrong, but one thing I've learned is that it's not enough to recognize a bubble. Almost everyone sees the markets are, as they say, frothy. But you need to see if there's a needle nearby. Without that you're just trying to get lucky.

Puts especially are really hard because they expire. They limit your loss compared to shorts, but you need to time it perfectly.

Both.

Well his 10 year performance is 255%. Which does not include his bet in 2005-08. Buffett has only done 154% in that time. So rumours of his demise are greatly exaggerated.

That doesn’t change the fact that he keeps making these doomsday predictions that don’t come true.

Also, his returns aren’t really impressive compared to VTI, which has had an annualized return of 14.04% over the past 10 years according to Vanguard. That works out to 372% total returns in that period.

It’s easy to make money when even the broadest US index fund is up by that much.

That could be part of his strategy no?

"He was born on third base, and is proud he's made it to second."

A joke said of Trump, of whom it is much more fair, but still...

Yep. A lot of these guys who have made a profit during 2008 are still chasing that dragon.

Ask Nostradamus. Big Short has a nice ring to it in future history books.