I mean, good? We need more tradespeople than we do office workers - and we need everyone in both fields to be paid substantially more than they presently earn, which will only come about through new business creation, something tradespeople dominate. Software engineers won’t power the green energy transformation so much as skilled electricians, architects, contractors, and builders. More finance people won’t replace aging and inefficient infrastructure so much as more road workers, pipe fitters, plumbers, and wastewater engineers.
I think the current (over)hype around LLMs replacing jobs wholesale is an excellent catalyst for this shift, but I also acknowledge that the pendulum was already naturally swinging that way after decades of over-prioritizing white collar work as the only means of joining the shrinking middle class.
Agreed. If this also raises the social status of blue collar work / workers - I mean that someone with a college degree won't feel ashamed to work in the trades, or that, say, a diesel mechanic wouldn't feel out of place at a book club - this will also be a positive development.
This doesn’t raise the status of blue collar workers because there are only so many plumbing jobs out there.
Don’t get me wrong - The trades are good, and were simply not “sexy” for a long while.
There was a reason people wanted their kids to do white collar work. Trades are dependent on economic cycles, and work can dry up. It’s also manual labor, which takes a toll on you physically.
In the end - neither white collar nor blue collar matter much, since neither guarantee a retirement anymore. The AI job apocalypse (if it happens) will be taking out the last life boat left standing.
We had manufacturing to move people from agrarian work to middle class life. That’s gone - automation has gotten to the point of lights out manufacturing. This has left only services.
Ps: I doubt AI will actually be the powerhouse it is being hailed as. There is a different between an MVP and having to maintain technical debt.
Agreed. If you have to work for a living, you’re part of the same class as everyone else - and just as capable of intelligence, empathy, and accomplishment. Metaphorical collar colors are irrelevant.
Thank you for pointing this out! I think we'd get along well, because one of my hobby horses - in real life, and occasionally on this site - is exactly that: if you're dependent on a paycheck, no matter its size, you're Working Class. Many people with large paychecks resist this conclusion - which goes directly back to our point about raising the social status of blue collar (or any other classically "working class") labor.
Sidenote, re "just as capable of... empathy": one of the more interesting things I've recently learned from raising a small human is the extent to which empathy must be taught. It's changed my view of the world a bit, because it's clear how many people haven't been, and so (now, as adults) genuinely aren't capable of it.
Because I'm from working class, rust belt and ive seen the reality the state of America blue collar, not just the "the guy who installed my TV said he owns his own business and makes almost as much as me working in software" fantasy.
I've also had a front row seat to "just learn JavaScript" go from great career advice to joke in the span of time it'd take you to finish a trade apprenticeship.
I think the current (over)hype around LLMs replacing jobs wholesale is an excellent catalyst for this shift, but I also acknowledge that the pendulum was already naturally swinging that way after decades of over-prioritizing white collar work as the only means of joining the shrinking middle class.