You are forgetting that we are talking about AI. That AI will be used to speed up progress on making next, better AI that will be used to speed up progress on making next, better AI that ...
Consider the research work for five in series breakthroughs: 1, 2, 16, 8, 128 each breakthrough doubles your research power.
If you start at 1 research, you get the first breakthrough after 1/1=1 year. Then you get the second breakthrough after 2/2=1 year. Then you get the third breakthrough after 16/4 = 4 years. The fourth breakthrough after 8/8= year. The fifth breakthrough after 128/16 = 8 years.
If it only takes one year for a competitor to learn your breakthrough, they can catch up despite the fact that your research rate is doubling after every breakthrough.
