No it would not be surpriseg at all at this point. it would be surprising if it was stable for years at 8B and went 1B overnight but for a stock that has lost 3x more than it's current market cap in the last year it's not surprising at all to lose another 1x.
Market expectetions are not based on facts, that is the lie that keeps catching the people with their pants down.
Market Expectations are a Bet of Risk/Award analysis based on limited data (thus at best limited at worst even distorted or ommited facts). There are always people willing to bet on the x3 or even x10 as long as the risk/award analysis is attractive. It is by no means a statement that you will win x3 or x10.
Cryptocurrencies are the perfect illustration of this effect but even in the regulated market see for example the illustration of the Gamestop: https://www.theverge.com/22253363/wall-street-bets-verge-sto...
it's perfect to show how the market expectations are bullshit and not facts.
Unsurprising doesn't mean predictable. It's often easy to say that something will go down (or up) in value at some point, but very difficult to say at which point.
Market expectetions are not based on facts, that is the lie that keeps catching the people with their pants down. Market Expectations are a Bet of Risk/Award analysis based on limited data (thus at best limited at worst even distorted or ommited facts). There are always people willing to bet on the x3 or even x10 as long as the risk/award analysis is attractive. It is by no means a statement that you will win x3 or x10.
Cryptocurrencies are the perfect illustration of this effect but even in the regulated market see for example the illustration of the Gamestop: https://www.theverge.com/22253363/wall-street-bets-verge-sto... it's perfect to show how the market expectations are bullshit and not facts.