The mistake this sort of analysis makes is assuming nobody will do anything to stop things getting worse, and underestimating the extent to which other things in the economy and society are going well. The same is true in booms, most analysts under value the risks building up in the system. It's the old extrapolating the down trend to infinity in a bust, and extrapolating the upswing to infinity in a boom.
This is why Ukraine didn't collapse under bombing, Russia didn't collapse under sanctions, the Chinese property market is now rallying. It's why the Fed made a profit out of TARP. When things go to crap, the people who can do something don't throw their hands in the air and give up. They get to work.
There are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen.
That's the idea. When bad happens, it is uncontrolled. Eventually, bad will happen and no attempt to control it will succeed. But sure, until then, you are right. And there is nothing anyone can really do to prepare except have a "go bag" and have assets and residence in multiple countries.
The mistake this sort of analysis makes is assuming nobody will do anything to stop things getting worse, and underestimating the extent to which other things in the economy and society are going well. The same is true in booms, most analysts under value the risks building up in the system. It's the old extrapolating the down trend to infinity in a bust, and extrapolating the upswing to infinity in a boom.
This is why Ukraine didn't collapse under bombing, Russia didn't collapse under sanctions, the Chinese property market is now rallying. It's why the Fed made a profit out of TARP. When things go to crap, the people who can do something don't throw their hands in the air and give up. They get to work.