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If donations is a factor, it would be more logical for politicians to consider the likelihood of future donations rather than past ones. In fact, if the chance of future donations is close to zero, there is a certain appeal in making an example of SBF to "prove" that donations do not matter in this way.

(I'm still mulling whether they do or not; just commenting on the game theory.)



You forget the example the politicians want to make to other future donors.

If you let him hang because he doesn't have more money to give you, nobody else is going to give you anything.


On the other hand it's not good when they embarrass you, regardless of how much they might have put in. If you make it clear that being hung out to dry will be the punishment for embarrassment, maybe you'll get fewer of those donations.


>there is a certain appeal in making an example

No politician wants to make an example of any white collar crime for they are all criminals themselves and they fear someone making an example of them


I think the argument would be that said second largest donor would have beans to spill if they get arrested.




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