It might win in the sense that that would then also be a thing that exists, but would not necessarily mean that Mastodon can no longer be what it is now, I don't think?
By Google talk I meant all its successor like hangouts and google chat. It's more like they moved its users to new service rather than killing it. Same with facebook messenger, which supported XMPP.
Sure yeah XMPP is surviving but it's nowhere close to Google chat or FB messenger.
It's kind of having a renaissance as more people discover the world outside of walled gardens. Platforms die eventually, internet standards are here to stay.
