Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

> Wait a year or two.

The Great Financial Crisis will be the only event of this nature in our lifetimes. The country would need to overbuild like crazy to cause housing to crash like that again.

Everyone is expecting housing prices to fall in "a year or two." I've been hearing this for two years now. The market has a habit of doing the opposite of what people expect it to.



Housing prices are correcting now, at least in some areas. It's definitely happening in AZ. I've seen drops of almost 15%.

OpenDoor has been taking a loss on a lot of properties it bought over the past few months too.

Considering inventory is up over 2X YOY as well, I expect prices to fall even further here. I'm not sure if it'll get as bad as 08 though, but a 30-40% drop isn't out of the question the way things are headed imo.

The thing is though with rates as high as they are, housing prices dropping this much actually doesn't make affordability any better unless you can pay in cash.


> OpenDoor has been taking a loss on a lot of properties it bought over the past few months too.

I don't understand how they are able to stay solvent. It's gotta be VC money keeping them alive, right?


Not sure where you are, but California at least has clear up/down cycles, but they take many years unlike a stock bubble.

E.g. I the last housing bubble started popping in 2005-2006, but didn't bottom until about 2010-11


Yep, it'll take a long time to bottom. That said, I'm surprised how much things have already fallen in AZ. Some of the properties with 10% price cuts, have been sitting on the market for over 2 months. Demand has fallen off a cliff here. I can't see how it gets any better with the Fed continuing to rate rates.


As cheap debt dries up there are less people that are able to pay the high price for a house. If the Fed keeps raising the federal funds rate it is a near certainty that home prices are going to fall, on average, due to lack of buyers.


There's too much demand for housing for this to happen. Worst case, they go down 5-10% in the hardest hit areas, but most places are going to see low or no growth even if rates hit 7%.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: