That happened in Eurasia. Events in the Americas were decoupled from Eurasia.
The fact is, we don't have any evidence for or against any domestication, or wheels, in North America. Any evidence that might have existed was burned up along with everything else, in the YD conflagration. So, any estimation of probability is 100% guessing, with a decorative and misleading frosting of "science".
What we do have firm evidence for is domestication of tree species in South America before 10,000 years ago. So, domestication did happen there before similar events in Eurasia.
Tree domestication takes a lot longer than for pulses and grains, which hints they might have started rather earlier. The Amazon basin was never as heavily affected by ice ages as temperate regions smothered under ice, miles deep, although of course it went through major climate shifts of its own. I would not be surprised to learn that, 20kya, much of it was savanna.
The fact is, we don't have any evidence for or against any domestication, or wheels, in North America. Any evidence that might have existed was burned up along with everything else, in the YD conflagration. So, any estimation of probability is 100% guessing, with a decorative and misleading frosting of "science".
What we do have firm evidence for is domestication of tree species in South America before 10,000 years ago. So, domestication did happen there before similar events in Eurasia.