The tech is already good enough for anyone to make a convincing deepfake, I think, and especially state actors - or people with deep enough wallets - can perfect it. I mean some of the memes of e.g. Obama saying something he never did are convincing enough.
The Tom Cruise ones going around a while ago were indistinguishable from reality for me. Granted I'm not intimately familiar with Tom Cruise, just watched some of his movies, but I could see believing them if I didn't know they're deep fake.
I think right now only a single-digit number of people in the world can produce a convincing fake. And while they could be working for the government, I don't think they do.
