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Not sure what your point is. Futures on currencies are basically spot aside for some interest rate differences.

The point is, if the future goes down 30%, the spot is basically down 30%. Any other affects are like 3rd order at that point.



So why should the 4-month future rate (30 percent) determine the spot more strongly than the 1-month rate (20 percent)? When the latter has 100x the volume?




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