Is it not possible that both investors and the public will find the shine off the apple of pairing two independently somewhat unattractive things--a stationary bicycle and a hefty monthly fee--as used models start to hit the secondary market?
Have you ever tried to sell a used stationary bicycle? It ain't easy! The evidence of the gulf between good intentions and regular use is right there.
There’s a HUGE secondary market for Peloton bikes. There’s an extremely active Facebook group with these. They tend to sell within hours from what I’ve seen.
We have a Peloton bike and treadmill both. I haven't watched too closely, but occasionally people ask about selling their bikes (or buying a used bike to save money), and the impression I get is that they hold their value relatively well. Then again, asking price != sale price. I'm trying to validate but all I'm finding on sfbay.craigslist is coupon codes and "Peloton style spinning bike" and so forth.
What I've observed, very very anecdotally, is that Peloton buyers become emotionally invested, and it turns out that they don't use the thing much, but resist strongly the idea of selling it at a huge loss and admitting defeat. Because buyers tend to have quite a bit of disposable income, it takes a long time to drift down to a market-clearing price.
Do you know any?
I only personally know a couple of Peloton owners (from the time before they owned one), and they all use them regularly. The people I know from Peloton groups online, obviously, are a self-selecting group of more frequent/fervent users, so they don't really count.
We go in cycles; I use the bike much less frequently in the summer when I ride outside more, and more in the winter. I'm around 300 rides on it, my wife's closer to 100. (I ride more/she runs more).
We bought the treadmill in the spring after she got injured (again) trying to run in short morning daylight hours, or waning evening daylight hours, so we haven't used it as much, but it will definitely get a lot more use as the darkness descends on us again.
We're both pretty active, so I guess maybe we don't represent the average of the addressable market, but maybe we represent more of an average of CURRENT owners.
Peloton could really have a home run, market-wise, if they could sell expensive equipment AND subscriptions that people don't want to let go of because they want to keep thinking of themselves as people who work out. (The same way people keep paying gym memberships because they want to believe they're going to work out more).
It's certainly not hard to imagine Peloton is something of a fad. There is no shortage of those in the fitness space--in addition to the, as you say, general omnipresence of New Year's resolutions vs. ongoing use.
Or Pelotron could be the start of communal home fitness, taking the place of gym (e.g. Soul Cycle) subscription fees. Point is there is no way to know for certain.
Are you thinking of any in particular? Attention toward IPOs (especially on HN) go almost exclusively to bad IPOs. Fair offerings seem to get ignored.
Edit: Peloton is one that comes to mind. Nearly $1 billion in sales, up 40% YoY. Although even they are posting a net loss of a quarter billion.