No one significant is predicting a doom/collapse (which parent didn’t mention either, so I guess you are just putting out a red herring), but China is definitely due for a crash/financial crisis to wash out all of the economic bad blood/distortions that has accumulated from its rise. There is plenty of evidence that the real estate market will go bust in the next few years.
China could get stronger after a crash as it’s economy gets dosed with realism, or depending on how the government manages it, it could be in for a Japan-style lost decade or two.
The Great Recession was nowhere near a collapse, it was a crash/recession, even the depression wasn’t really a collapse, the USA clearly recovered from it within a decade. A collapse is like Venezuela ATM and Zimbabwe before.
Collapse precludes a recovery in the near term, and means some sort of government or dynastic change. Collapse language is used in contrast to a much normal crash.
Ya, and obviously the stock market. But none of these have been big enough to cause a full blown financial crisis. China hasn’t had one of those since the 90s.
They do some bloodletting to let off some pressure from time to time. This pushes the full blown crisis further down the road. However this time they are in an obvious bind over the real estate price boom and there is no easy way out.
The can kicking only makes the eventual crisis even worse. Real estate is one area of weakness waiting to blow but debt, especially local government and SOE, is definitely another.
China could get stronger after a crash as it’s economy gets dosed with realism, or depending on how the government manages it, it could be in for a Japan-style lost decade or two.