You can't call your airlines tickets $18k in value because you wouldn't have spent $18k on two airline tickets. My value is the max I'm willing to pay for a ticket, not the price the airline says the ticket I redeemed for is worth. Bloggers say this too and it's disingenuous. For me those tickets would be $5k because that's the most I'm willing to pay for two tickets to Japan.
It's a pain to figure out the best way to get from point A to point B using points. You have to figure out which points to collect,then you have to collect enough of them, then figure out which time of the year to go where the redemptions you can afford are. Then you have to transfer and book on partner airlines. It certainly isn't straightforward.
Yeah, sure, you can do a big trip with two HUGE sign up bonuses of flexible points very easily. Being able to get one high quality trip isn't the same as being able to get many high quality trips, you aren't going to be able to do that a couple times a year (which is what bloggers make it seem like). Travel bloggers promote churning through cards to keep generating more points. You can't just churn through Platinum and CSR applications over and over again. (Platinum is churable to an extent but that's another topic and AMEX is cracking down on that)
Those two sign up bonuses you got are not common and the CSR one won't come back ever again (Chase is losing money on the CSR, look for a devaluation in the future).
Also your points have to be spread out among 5+ different loyalty programs if you want to continue churning credit cards/points/bonuses.
My redemptions are fine, they fit my needs. I have not redeemed a lot yet. I haven't planned a big trip yet. So far all my redemptions have been for a couple nights at a time. You aren't going to get as much value if you simply fly domestic. Flying to Japan may get you the most value but it's worthless if you don't want to fly to Japan.
Anyways, my point of the GP was:
-TPG and most travel blogs are a business that are making money off you.
-Points aren't as simple as "sign up for credit card, fly to Japan," you have to be flexible and usually to get a good redemption you'll have to transfer and book off peak. Availably is limited.
-To get more than 1-2 trips you're going to have to game the system. Sign up, collect bonuses, close card, repeat. You hit a wall with this after a while.
-Credit card companies are cracking down on gamers.
-Some people are better off getting part time job with how much effort they put into gaming the system.
I do not believe its disingenuous to say that they are $18k in value. That's how much the tickets cost at the time. Could I afford the tickets if I paid cash? No, but isn't that the whole point of churning?
I looked up the cheapest flights on ANA business class in September 2017 and they look to be around $6500 per person. That is still quite a bit of money saved. I potentially could afford that if I was extra frugal for a few years. It also means you can use the money for other things, which we did in the form hot springs ryokan, more gifts and souvenirs.
Figuring out which points to collect really wasn't that hard, it takes 10 minutes to look up that information. There are plenty of sites that catalog that information like reddit.com/r/awardtravel, www.awardace.com, www.awardhacker.com
Figuring out which time of the year to go may change the amount of points you need, that I agree can be annoying.
I will concede that its not a straight forward process, but its also something you can look up and research in a day.
As for the huge sign up bonuses, yes they probably won't come around again for a long time, but you can still get the amount of points needed pretty quick. Since I booked our trips in 2016 (2017 was the vacation), I have accumulated 50k Amex points and 40k Chase points. Amex has quite a few offers that double, triple, or even 10x the normal amount of points received. I bought a TV from Best Buy and got 3000 points. I signed up for "Pay over time" and got 10,000 points. I had to ship a few packages (ebay stuff) on Fedex and got 10x points for 2k points.
With Chase I put all my grocery/dining/travel expenses on it. I get 3x for that.
At the end of the day, I guess it depends on how much you want out of it. I do not do manufactured spending and buy gift cards, but I do look at deals and offers and try to maximize my point earnings. Whether you believe that's a chore and is worth it or not is up to you.
You can get a $500 hotel on points. You don't say "well, I live for free at home, so technically this night is worth nothing."
Just because you can "buy" something with a different currency that might make more sense, doesn't make it cost less in USD if you were to purchase it outright.
He's talking about willingness to pay (WTP), which is the right way to value travel imo. A biz flight might be $4k, but the economy option might be $800. If I buy economy but would pay ~$1500 for business, but no more, then the miles are effectively worth that to you. If an airline was selling fares at $1500 you'd buy them, but since they're not, you won't be buying at $4k.
In your hotel example, you should look at the WTP for a room. I might pay $150 for a room, and up to $250 for the high end room. So even if the sticker price is $500, it's value to me is closer to $250, so I'll calculate my CPM that way.
If I was given a $500 hotel voucher (that was non-transferable and expires) and I had absolutely no use for a hotel room I would value that voucher at $0, yes.
Just like if Amazon offered me a year of prime membership for $10 I'd say "no thank you" because I value prime membership at $0. (Don't shop at Amazon much, don't mind waiting for shipping, have all the streaming I need)
Its pretty easy to use points to book rooms for other people, I was able to gift 4 reservations a few weeks back for an event. All I had to do was write "Gift Reservation for xyz person" in the Request option.
Right, but that's why I said "voucher," not "points." Incidentally, that is why United got such a bad rap for giving out vouchers rather than cash for bumping passengers. Because everyone knows vouchers are more than likely never going to be used before they expire.
Even considering you can book rooms for others, there's still a huge segment of the population (50%?) where hotel points are still completely useless. There's a time in my life hotel points would be completely useless to me too. Many people don't travel and don't have friends/family who travel either, it's as simple as that. The HN crowd seems to believe that everyone is taking a few vacations to far away places a year but that's simply not the case, most people I know do not travel at all and do not want to either.
Plus, even you wanted to use them they would have to have a hotel at the destination where you also wanted to travel to.
It's a pain to figure out the best way to get from point A to point B using points. You have to figure out which points to collect,then you have to collect enough of them, then figure out which time of the year to go where the redemptions you can afford are. Then you have to transfer and book on partner airlines. It certainly isn't straightforward.
Yeah, sure, you can do a big trip with two HUGE sign up bonuses of flexible points very easily. Being able to get one high quality trip isn't the same as being able to get many high quality trips, you aren't going to be able to do that a couple times a year (which is what bloggers make it seem like). Travel bloggers promote churning through cards to keep generating more points. You can't just churn through Platinum and CSR applications over and over again. (Platinum is churable to an extent but that's another topic and AMEX is cracking down on that)
Those two sign up bonuses you got are not common and the CSR one won't come back ever again (Chase is losing money on the CSR, look for a devaluation in the future).
Also your points have to be spread out among 5+ different loyalty programs if you want to continue churning credit cards/points/bonuses.
My redemptions are fine, they fit my needs. I have not redeemed a lot yet. I haven't planned a big trip yet. So far all my redemptions have been for a couple nights at a time. You aren't going to get as much value if you simply fly domestic. Flying to Japan may get you the most value but it's worthless if you don't want to fly to Japan.
Anyways, my point of the GP was:
-TPG and most travel blogs are a business that are making money off you.
-Points aren't as simple as "sign up for credit card, fly to Japan," you have to be flexible and usually to get a good redemption you'll have to transfer and book off peak. Availably is limited.
-To get more than 1-2 trips you're going to have to game the system. Sign up, collect bonuses, close card, repeat. You hit a wall with this after a while.
-Credit card companies are cracking down on gamers.
-Some people are better off getting part time job with how much effort they put into gaming the system.
-The rules are always changing.