Even peaker plants run ~15 cents these days, since the price of gas has fallen so low.
edit: I'm more familiar with the Texas grid, but beyond the cheapish price of modern peaker plants, in that case the most expensive input sources (small peaker plants, and esp. spot-market purchases) are rarely used at all. Demand prediction and management is good enough to avoid the more expensive inputs, through a mixture of local generation management and advance wholesale purchases on the DC interconnects. On the handful of days when some issue causes a shortfall, it would be valuable to buy residential solar inputs, but this happens about 5-6 days a year. To handle those days, most utilities have a savings-rebate program, where if you agree to reduce your usage between 2-5pm on these handful of days, you get a $0.60/kwh credit. So they solve their occasional peak problem by just turning your thermostat up 2º and "buying" the unused energy at a premium price.
Yeah, but that makes PG&E's "smartrate" summer afternoon price of 75c per kWh even less justifiable.
This data may not be publicly available, but I'd love to see graphs of current flowing out of PG&E substations vs. time of day. At some point the PV generation capacity is going to make them have weird upside-down diurnal cycles.
edit: I'm more familiar with the Texas grid, but beyond the cheapish price of modern peaker plants, in that case the most expensive input sources (small peaker plants, and esp. spot-market purchases) are rarely used at all. Demand prediction and management is good enough to avoid the more expensive inputs, through a mixture of local generation management and advance wholesale purchases on the DC interconnects. On the handful of days when some issue causes a shortfall, it would be valuable to buy residential solar inputs, but this happens about 5-6 days a year. To handle those days, most utilities have a savings-rebate program, where if you agree to reduce your usage between 2-5pm on these handful of days, you get a $0.60/kwh credit. So they solve their occasional peak problem by just turning your thermostat up 2º and "buying" the unused energy at a premium price.