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I WFH once a week and as-needed. Starting Monday we are all WFH for 2-3 weeks.

For productivity, I absolutely require either a docking station or some sort of KVM switch setup so I can use a regular keyboard, mouse, and monitor. That, or I just remote desktop right into my secured work device which essentially serves the same purpose. I lock myself in my home office and tell the wife and kids to act like I'm at the actual office.

The work/life balance is actually better because I don't have to commute. Just make sure if you normally go to the gym that you keep that up...assuming your gym doesn't close because of this. The gym seems like a primary place to close down because of this virus.

We use Skype and Teams to keep the chic chat style banter and useless meme-sharing alive and well.


I can see it. If you are healthy and you know that for most people the virus is mild and the mortality rate is roughly on par with the flu (they previously had it higher but the latest numbers look to be more like the flu at 0.1%, mostly all elderly or already ill), and you know the ships are likely to have less people on them, and you can likely get a deal, and they'll probably treat you like gold if you go...yeah I can see it.

Hell, just writing that out actually makes me think twice about calling and booking something. But I have young children and my wife would be unnecessarily worried the whole time and she doesn't even like cruises.


I think the solution I use personally would also serve your purpose. I use KeeWeb (app.keeweb.info). It's a web app that caches in your browser and only runs locally. It also has a desktop version for Windows as well. I keep the web app up on my Android Chrome all the time since there's no phone specific app and it works beautifully.

You can store the database (encrypted of course) in a Dropbox account that it can connect to. The desktop version can also periodically store backups locally on any device you want. If you treat the Dropbox as the centralized master, every one of your employees can simply use either the Windows desktop app or just keep a browser tab open with it (like I do at work). Any changes anyone makes will instantly be reflected across all instances.

I've never tried using for more than my 3 devices, but I don't see why it wouldn't work seamlessly.


That's somewhat correct. But it wasn't that they didn't allow those people to sell. In the film they were dealing with specialty derivative products that weren't traded by your average person. The derivative products in the film were sort of like bond pricing where price discovery isn't obvious and determining a fair price is a bit subjective since the volume was very low. So when people like Michael Burry (Bale's character) called to see what kind of price they could get, the banks would give him a bullshit, obnoxiously low offer price they'd be willing to give him because correctly valuing these derivatives would bankrupt the banks. So they held them on the books with fake valuations to stay afloat while they reduced their risk. Then, after doing all that they could fairly price them, which is when Burry makes a metric shit ton of money basically overnight - because he is finally able to get a fair price.

For example, if we took a simpler example of something more people are familiar with like options...let's say you buy a put at a strike of 100. The stock is trading right around 100. The market tanks like it has been doing and the stock goes down to 80. That's great for you since you had the put. You technically have the right to buy the shares at the market and shove them onto someone and force them to pay you 100. Most of the time, since we're dealing with derivatives, they just trade the value of the option itself and skip dealing with the underlying security because it takes a lot of capital (100 shares * 80 bucks each in this case). So the value of the option (the derivative) should be around $20 as you approach expiration and the premium fades off. If the market maker for the options has way too much exposure and wrote naked puts (meaning they didn't have the underlying security) they took on a ton of risk and basically got fucked. In this scenario it's like Burry calling and finding out his options are worth like $1.50 instead of $20 simply because they are thinly traded and therefore can't get a good price by anyone. This actually happens on some options - you'll see a huge spread between the bid and ask on some options so it's not like it doesn't happen even for this type of retail-friendly derivative.


Thanks for the clarification, very well explained ;)


This isn't quite true. I get what you're saying, but from a technical perspective, it's not accurate. The markets also go up based on the total money supply in the system. If the government takes on a lot of debt, eventually a portion of that makes its way to the stock market, among other places.

You don't actually need to improve efficiency/productivity if the government has tools like the discount rate, open market operations, the ability to alter margin requirements on derivatives, fed funds rate, as well as programs and policies like MMIF, TAF, CPPF, ABCP, TALF, ZIRP, to manipulate the money supply and the velocity/flow rates of money.


Time-based options have a fixed cost which you pay up front. So again, there is no risk of insolvency because you've already paid up front and capped your losses.


Not if your strategy is to short the contracts instead of buying it.


Pelican Cove is being built as we speak.


They're only good because they were repeatedly given an infinite amount of money for 2 decades by investors while their retail operations lost money so that they could nail the implementation and the promise that they would figure out how to make it profitable.


Amazon effectively leveraged investment capital to do exactly what they said they would do - innovate, learn into the market, and improve iteratively. From investors' perspectives (and probably consumers' perspectives as well), Amazon has succeeded brilliantly.


You talk as if Amazon was like an Uber or WeWork. That's really far from the truth.

Amazon were slightly profitable or break-even since 2003. There's a convenient chart of their profits since day one here:

https://qz.com/1196256/it-took-amazon-amzn-14-years-to-make-...

Starting in 1997 they bled money with mounting losses until about 1999, when they began to turn things around. The dotcom pop is clearly visible but they recovered almost immediately and their losses continued to shrink until about 2001-2002 when they became break even. From 2002-2011 they either made small profits or nothing, but that was obviously because they were growing at a rapid pace and putting all the money back into the business. Once AWS launches in 2006 (so about 10 years after day 1 in retail) profits start growing but then are back into the red around the time of the GFC+recession, and again in the 2012-2013 European recession. After that it's stratospheric profits.

How much investor money is "infinite money"? Somewhere between $8-$9 million before they floated on the stock market.

https://www.quora.com/Who-were-the-original-investors-in-Ama...

Obviously, investors who put money into their IPO have done extremely well and cannot claim they were shovelling money into a furnace, far from it.

The inflation in investment round sizes over the past 20 years has been staggering. I see nothing that suggests Amazon was unusual in raising so little money (comparatively speaking) before they went public.


Did they really nail the implementation? I still refuse to buy anything that would go on or inside my body from amazon because I'm worried about getting counterfeits.


I.e. Amazon has long term thinking.


Surprise, when executed well it leads to long term value.


They only lose money on paper. Pouring all the returns back into the business is a very sound business plan.


Whatever happened to the RFID concept where they (not Amazon, but others) previously envisioned attaching small, cheap RFID badges to all items and then you would just do one big, quick scan at the end and it would read all the RFID tags in your cart at once and you could walk out?

I like that idea better, honestly. It's more accurate and doesn't require video monitoring and all sorts of AI/ML/DL algorithms. Though, I don't know the practicality of attaching RFIDs to everything, nor the cost. And I assume some people would try to just rip them off, which I imagine would be the biggest concern, in addition to having the staff attach them to everything.


OP said nothing about timing the market. As you mentioned, that's the entire opposite of DCA. I take your interpretation to be a bit disingenuous and lacking in good faith.

OPs point is clearly that the panic selling is not rational and they are acting accordingly. Whether or not that's correct remains to be seen, however.


It pays to remember that when one sells their shares, there is someone else who's buying at the other end of that trade. Right now that someone is me. 20+% discount sounds pretty awesome even if it's not "the bottom". I typically buy and hold, and not worry too much about turbulence, since I'm not on margin.


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