Well, they could, theoretically, print their own pound(as they already do) and tie its value to that of GBP. Or maybe don't do that, and have it separate, like US and Canadian dollars. I know you are going to say that if they join EU they would have to take the eruo - but I don't see why it couldn't be negotiated away, there's plenty of countries which agreed to take the Euro(Poland for example) but after the 2008 crisis, suspended the adaption indefinitely.
Scottish banks do indeed print their own bank notes (as do some in NI)- but they are for the GDP.
Mind you, you used to get situations (a while back) where foreign exchange places in Europe would give you worse exchange rates for Scottish notes rather than English ones.
Foreign exchanges giving worse exchange rate is better than the situation I've had many times in england, were I was simply unable to pay with or exchange northern irish or scottish pounds.
Someone told me that, by law, they have to accept those notes, but I still have ~40 NI pounds that I took to london on a trip a couple of years ago and had to take back with me.
It's a a very tender point with people because people get weirdly patriotic regarding Scottish Pound Notes. But they are a sort of bizzare currency.
Scottish notes are a legal currency, but not a legal tender. In fact there is no such thing as legal tender in Scotland. Even BoE notes are not legal tender in Scotland.
Legal tender only means you can legally pay down debts by court order in the given currency. BoE notes fulfill this job, but only in England & Wales.
"Someone told me that, by law, they have to accept those notes"
No, they don't even have to by law accept BoE notes in England. Only for paying down debts by law is that true.
Any shop or whatever can refuse or accept anything you give them.
However, to add further confusion, every single pound of Scottish notes is backed up by BoE pound sterling.
In the banks that print Scottish notes (Clydedale, RBS, Bank of Scotland) they have to keep an equal ammount of BoE Sterling.
They even created special notes so they could hold the currency in their vaults in Banks.
You can get £1,000,000 and £100,000,000 notes called Giants and Titans, which back up the Scottish and NI pound notes.
What you are legally entitled to do however (I think?) is go into any branch of Bank you have a Scottish note of and request the equal in BoE note.
So if you have £20 RBS Scottish note, you can go in to an RBS branch legally and claim your BoE note with a nice picture of Adam Smith on it :)
I'm assuming you aren't Scottish (the reference to "they") but I've never worked out why people outside of Scotland get so worked up about the fate of a small and relatively obscure country.
It's a country that experienced a diaspora - a lot of us are loosely connected, hence the interest. (It's nonsensical to call something obscure and then wonder why so many people are talking about it...)
> The UK needs the EU more than the EU needs the UK.
I beg to differ.
The Eurocrats in Brussels who are unelected. Wanted Britian out immediately after the result.
Merkel, on the other hand. Had the Car manufacturers on the phone screaming at her about the result. For them, the UK is 25% of their export market. I am sure other German manufacturers are not too happy with the result either.
The UK is simply in a better position than the EU. Now more than ever.
Think about all those directives the EU placed on the UK. Now they can be all changed.
Think about agriculture, fishing, energy, etc. Everything that HAD to be negotiated as an EU entity. That only things could have been pushed through the EU parliment is if all EU states agreed. That no other country had been penalised!
Now, British interests come first. If the UK wants to do something and France or another country doesn't like it. Now it's tough luck.
Now many times has France Veto'd something that Britian wanted before, because her interests were marginalised or a sector under threat?
This is what people simply just don't understand.
Once all the smoke clears. Britian has a real chance to be more competitive than France or Germany and that scares the hell out of them!
Except that no one will ever trust investing in trade with Britain again after this. "British interests come first", in Britain. Brexit erased what is now $2.8 trillion from the global markets, devalued what was thought to be a strong safe currency, losing UK territories and has no leadership to speak of taking any sort of accountability for this disaster.
To the rest of the world it's shocking and infuriating to witness. You see a nation that will be more competitive, we see a nation in freefall collapse. Even here in the USA, we are not on board with this. Our banks are pulling out of London as we speak.
No banks, no pound, no stability.. no leverage. To the rest of the world from now on, British interests come last.
The "eurocrats" are elected, there are elections for the eu parlement every 5 years. The 28 (soon 27) members of the european comission are proposed by the member states (eg their elected leaders) and approved by the european parlement. And finally the council of europe is made up of elected national ministers (per domain).
With regard to the rules: you would still have to comply to most of these rules to be part of the single market (which most leave proponents want to be). Studies from WTO and IMF have shown that not going that route (eg trading under WTO rules) would impact UK severely (up to 9% of the GPD). See for example https://www.imf.org/external/np/ms/2016/051316.htm
> Now, British interests come first. If the UK wants to do something and France or another country doesn't like it. Now it's tough luck.
Will you still call it "British" if Scotland decides to leave the UK in favor of the EU?
Isn't there even worse luck for the UK should they want to sell something to the EU which doesn't meet EU standards, and France objects to the change? And won't British manufacturers who have both a domestic and mainland market have the overhead of following two sets of standards? I guess it's tough luck for them.
> scares the hell out of them!
Sitting here in Sweden, I have a feeling more of confusion than being scared. The longer the UK drags its heels on leaving, the more it feels like the UK just want to be the special snowflake in the center of everyone's attention.
> Merkel, on the other hand. Had the Car manufacturers on the phone screaming at her about the result.
Wishful thinking or do you have any source for this?
> The UK is simply in a better position than the EU. Now more than ever
> Once all the smoke clears. Britian has a real chance to be more competitive than France or Germany and that scares the hell out of them!
I really like Berlin's laid back, alternative attitude where it's not all about the money. I can't imaging you have that in an expensive city like London, but I'm afraid how long it might last in Berlin too.
Yea I know that feeling. It is the same feeling I got when I first saw that my tax rate in Berlin was @ 42% and then realized that whatever remains has to go into paying for the rent anyway.
You do mean the marginal tax rate, right? Not the average tax rate. To be taxed @ 42% (average) in Germany your income would have to be way north of 300k€ [1]. With that kind of income, your social security (health, unemployment, pension) would already be somewhere below 10% so nothing to complain about, really, given the benefits (yes, I know the benefits are no longer what they never used to be).
Add to that the absurd housing costs in, say, London, and things don't look too shabby for Berlin. Although you need to be tolerant towards the locals. I can understand some people having problems with that nonchalant "don't care if you care because, you know, I don't care" attitude that sometimes shows. But if you're capable of letting the occasional inflammatory/stupid remark slide, these guys and gals are quite nice. (Protip: This ability is great to have pretty much anywhere. Hanlon's Razor, anyone?)
To me, London is great to spend a few days of vacation. The atmosphere, the people, British humour, all great. Still, I never felt the urge to permanently move there to work. Too crowded, hard to get a decent flat... I guess it's not always just the money.
Erm, no. It is not. Any site describing the German income tax will tell you that what I wrote is perfectly true. You can verify quite easily for yourself by following the conveniently provided Wikipedia link.
The rent is really getting ridiculous. Seems like a lot of people are stuck in the prices they had five years ago. Though if you pick a WG, or live with a partner, you should end up paying between 25-35% of your rent. Not too shabby, but it used to be a LOT less only a few years ago.
Is that more expensive than the UK? Over about £40k you've got a 42% rate here (not including the employer NI either), and a 32% rate between abut £11k and £40k.
Frankfurt and Berlin feel like Germany and Barcelona feels like Spain. London feels more like an international melding pot detached from any one nation in the world.
Barcelona feels like Spain? Frankfurt and Berlin feeling generally like the same country?
I can agree that London is the most international city of Europe -at least right now, probably not in the close future-, but your descriptions of the other cities feel very off.
40% of Frankfurt residents have non-German passports. It definitely doesn't feel like the rest of Germany. There are tons of Turks, Italians, Croatians in particular, along with workers from all the EU member states. You can theoretically live and work without speaking any German, although obviously not having it makes life much more tricky.
> We all knew that a Brexit vote would unleash forces we didn’t understand – a series of rolling crises in high finance, macro-economics, politics and diplomacy
I find things like this shocking. That most of these articles are just shooting from the hip.
When Cameron first floated the idea of the Brexit. He did so, consulting all the civil servants in the country. You know, the ones who actually run the country and know exactly what needs to done should a leave vote happen.
There is no scrambling around, there is no forces we don't understand, there is no crises in high finance, politics or diplomacy.
This is a country that had it's own empire and had 200 civil servants to run India.
I constantly laugh at postings here that Germany is going to take Finance and the Tech center from London and that the UK Economy is going to collapse.
The UK did just fine outside of the europe before the EU turned into the EU. It will do FINE just outside of the EU.
What a lot of people need to remember. Is what Germany is going to do now. How will it AFFORD the monies that the UK was paying. The German people are the ones who are going to foot that bill.
Also, Hollande is on shaky ground. Le Penn may win and therefore will most certainly want her own Frexit vote.
Merkle, is on shaky ground, she's up for re-election next year? What if she loses?
Yeah, interesting times ahead. But in some respects. The UK may actually be doing better.
Hollande is on way worse than shaky ground. It's hard to see how he could ever get reelected now, he may not even bother running.
I've written a blog post on the upcoming votes in 2017 that could, if they go the "wrong" way, completely wreck the EU or at least radically change the negotiating outlook:
I am finding it very entertaining how people who see themselves as cosmopolitan, worldly and intellectual so drastically fail to pay attention to what's going on elsewhere.
The EU is a disaster zone. It's run by an alcoholic who has turned up to summit wasted and then literally slapped world leaders in the face. Faced with the worst blow the EU has ever faced he gave a press conference in which he answered only two questions, to the second of which he simply said "no" and then walked out. The president of the EU Parliament said he thought the UK was "holding the continent to ransom because of an internal fight in the Tory party" AFTER the vote took place.
The people arguing that they need to secede from the UK in order to rejoin the EU, don't seem to have noticed that the EU is rapidly becoming a basket case that is seeing radically anti-EU politicians topping the polls in major, important economies ... whilst its leaders submerge themselves in denial.
The situation in France is way worse that what can be seen in the media, 3 months of major strikes with even petrol shortage in half of the country, the president has only 13% support, the lowest of the 5th republic. They even had gunshots on the main building of the party.
The socialist party (equivalent of UK's labour) is dead as dead and I expect it to break into pieces as people are going to create new left parties. On the left side, the far left is almost guarantee to win. On the right side, the party is weak and polluted by internal fights and if they choose the wrong candidate, they are also dead.
The country is the most anti-EU country in Europe, even more than the UK, only Greece is toping France on that aspect. Although it's not for the same reasons as the UK.
The next election, only in April is going to be pretty intense.
It should confuse any reasonable person that despite the death-knell 'Leave' has meant to be to trade and immigration, it's supported by many powerful free-trade libertarian think-tanks. For example: the Hoover Institution [0], the Cato Institute [1], the Adam Smith Institute [2], etc.
For whatever reason nobody likes to admit that there are intelligent people with different beliefs to them.
The UK had the most Europ-skpetic vote in the EU Parliment - its something that Boris and his cornies never mention, they constantly got overruled since they were always against anything that allowed the EU project to move forward.
The UK will go on fine just like The republic of Congo is doing fine.
The EU for a long time has provided great boost in wealth for about 40 years. Its only due to the financial crisis that
things have not been really great lately.
However the European Project is much larger than any single nation state or generation of people. Given the change that has been happening over the last 50 years, do you think trade, movement of labor is going to decrease in the next 100 years ?
America is an economical powerhouse with 3/5 of Europe's population. Same goes for China. Even India has more clout when it it dealing with american companies since the consumer base has more value.
Europe has two paths, one is disintegration and one is faster and more united integration.
The important thing from the Perspective of British interest is that both path leads to Britain being a loser.
If the European Project fails then Britain is going to suffer as much as any other European country ( one of the reason why britain's foreign policy for 400+ years has been promoting continued stability in Europe )
And if Europe goes down a path of deeper integration the UK will be a competitor to a trading bloc that is essentially is a giant Star ( 15 Trillion vs 2 Trillion )
The EU also has plans for integration with Turkey, a country with the largest land army in Europe. As much as british people think of Turkey as a joke - its one of the fastest growing economy in the world.
Who do you think will have more leverage when forging trade deals with the middle east ? Turkey and Friends or the UK ?
The thing that most british people do not seem to realize is how small 55 million is - in a flat world of 7 billion people. It used to be different, but not anymore.
It has had those plans since 1993. They haven't gone anywhere (there's effectively been a stalemate since 2002), and I don't expect meaningful progress for another generation.
Or in other words the UK is exceptional, and will avoid the forces that wreck the economies of other nations in similar situations.
Of course at many times in the last 100 years our economy was not "just fine". The post war era was a string of constant economic trouble, despite having many thousands of eager civil servants. And the 1930s saw horrible unemployment and desperation.
You have to admit that brexit is an act of enormous bravado. People have forgotten just how bad things can get. Right now we are spending the dividend afforded to us by decades of peace. I hope it is worth the price. You may be right in everything you say, but I just wanted the prosperity to last just a little longer.
I constantly laugh at postings here that Germany is going to take Finance and the Tech center from London
I know people working in finance in the city who believe this, large banks like Morgan Stanley believe it and are moving staff, what makes you think it won't happen?
In addition to pc86's point, my comment wasn't targeted at you personally. There are certainly businesses that will be in the Stripe exclusion set. However, I was arguing against the implication that they've got some sort of really extensive set of exclusions that lots of people will need to worry about. For all the entries on it, it's not truly that large. Mostly it's just the fact that while they need the "don't do illegal things" clause, it's way easier to exclude specific things and then tell people that they fall under that specific rule than to get into lengthy and fruitless arguments about whether or not a particular activity is legal.
2) Least amount of red tape for businesses in Europe.
3) High Priority Visas for tech people and other sectors like bio, engineering, etc.
4) Investment for setting up businesses.
Pretty much, things that a conservative government which is pro business does.
In one fell swoop they can keep the current businesses here and make the UK attractive for foreign investment and also, with a strong economy. Once again make it a safe bet and keep that AAA rating.
I really wouldn't bet on the UK imploding. Those who say it will, don't know what they are talking about
Your #1 and #2 say "in Europe". Either Britain will be part of the EEA so they can't have less red tape than the rest of Europe, or they aren't in the EEA so the "in Europe" part of your statements isn't relevant.
As much as many Leave voters might wish for it, the geographic position of the United Kingdom is unlikely to change and therefore they will remain part of Europe.
The worst part about EU is how they make people assume that everyone who isn't in EU is not a true European. This is something you'd expect of Americans (from USA), but EU member states hardly have anything to be proud about, so where's the arrogance coming from?
You are tacitly forgetting Scotland and Northern Ireland leaving the UK soon... very soon while being welcomed into the EU and the major impact that will have in British economy.
Scotland and NI leaving are not "when", but "if", and even discussing "when", it is not "soon" and definitely not "very soon". Scotland has no history of maintaining a strong independent economy and by the time they (theoretically) leave the UK and manage to join the EU, the rest of the UK will have comfortably established an economic position without the EU.
If Scotland leaves the UK over Brexit, maintaining continuity in the EU will clearly be the goal, which means the timeline must be shorter than the two year timeline for Britain to leave the EU (the same would be true with NI, but that's less likely to happen; pro-EU Republicans want a union with Ireland that neither Ireland nor unionists -- pro-EU or otherwise -- want, and unionists still have a majority and the pro-EU ones are still probably more pro-UK than anything else. Brexit may increase factional tensions in NI, but it's unlikely to directly or in the near term lead to a consensus on independence.)
Scotland is effectively a one party system, which is quite dangerous, never mind that the common man/woman do not see this.
The consequences for leaving the UK are well known. Companies aren't going to stay in because of Europe. They are going to move over the border.
Also. The UK rescued the Scottish banks. Scotland will have to take on half this debt. Will the EU bail out Scotland? Will there be Greece style terms?
So with the debt, companies leaving, not getting much tax receipts. How will Scotland pay for the FREE tuition, FREE healthcare, FREE this and FREE that, they like to promise? Is the EU going to be sending them FREE monies?
Finally and this is where I tend to laugh the most. Once Scotland joins Europe and the Euro. How is Scotland an independent state in Europe? How have Scottish people not realised this? Go look at Greece!
Scotland won't be able to control her economy. The EU bureaucrats will not do what's in her best interests. They'll do what's in THEIR best interests!
So what happens when Scotland no longer has control of her finances, can't pay for the FREE stuff. Oh and then slips into recession and the UK is doing better off? Yeah, that's the joke.
Oh and the UK won't let Scotland use the pound. I can tell you that now!
The consequences for leaving the UK are well known.
The consequences for leaving the EU were well-known and kicked in within hours of the votes being tallied last week, but didn't stop the English from voting to do it anyway. And if we're going to allow the English to be that reckless on the basis of a single simple-majority vote, I don't see why we oughtn't let the Scots do the same.
The consequences for Scotland leaving the UK are an order of magnitude worse, and that is if they were guaranteed admission to the EU on a roughly similar basis to to the UK's current status. In reality they would probably have to adopt the Euro and thus have even less control over fiscal policy which would mean dealing with the 9% budget deficit, higher than Greece's which would be political suicide.
There does remain the question of whether Scotland, which has no proven history of having any sort of independent economy, would come anywhere close to being an acfeptabke risk for the EU and eurozone to take on.
I'm not claiming to have an answer one way or another there, but it seems a bit of a risk to just assume that.
Certainly, I listened to Nicola Sturgeon's post-result address and it sounded like she was out talking to all the leaders she could.
If the question of post-Independence EU membership is resolved on the EU side I'd love to know, during the last referendum the EU was pretty clear there would be no automatic entry for Scotland. But whether that was true or politically driven... guess we'll find out.
Although I have no reason to believe that the EU wouldn't accept Scotland on this basis, a fresh accession might require the agreement of 27 countries.
There was a question last time about whether Scotland would automatically inherit EU membership or would have to apply for accession. IIRC, the EU wouldn't answer the question directly because Westminster refused to ask them. I'm guessing Nicola Sturgeon might be keen for this question to be cleared up.
The notion that Scottish companies would move to England is absurd. Surely you must realize the difference (especially in size) between the EU and English marketplace.
"The UK rescued the Scottish banks. Scotland will have to take on half this debt."
That's an extremely common fallacy. The banks were bailed out not by the countries they were based in but by the proportion of their wealth that belonged to citizens of each countries (roughly, it is slightly more complicated than that). Only a small proportion of the "Scottish Banks" wealth was actually that of Scottish citizens. The majority of it was English wealth along with a few other countries, therefore England would have had to bail out a sizeable chunk to avoid the economic ramifications of these "Scottish Banks" collapsing.
You are spreading many inaccuracies here, but we should take them one-by-one.
No. Sturgeon is just playing up to her base.
I suspect it's even more simple – Sturgeon thinks that Scotland should be part of the EU, is backed by a clear majority of voters, and will take all steps possible to try and keep the country in the EU.
Scotland is effectively a one party system, which is quite dangerous, never mind that the common man/woman do not see this.
Scotland currently has a parliament in which no single party has a majority. That's essentially as far from a one-party state as it's possible to get.
You might call it a one-party state in the sense of representation as Westminster, but that's down to an outdated electoral system more than anything else.
The consequences for leaving the UK are well known.
That might have been the case (though I don't think it was) but it's clear that those consequences are likely to be substantially different now. The UK that existed at the time of the last referendum will no longer exist.
Companies aren't going to stay in because of Europe. They are going to move over the border.
I'm not sure there is any evidence of that at this point. Few companies said they would do that at the time of the last referendum, so it's difficult to see why this would have changed.
Also. The UK rescued the Scottish banks. Scotland will have to take on half this debt. Will the EU bail out Scotland? Will there be Greece style terms?
The UK rescued the UK's banks – not 'Scottish banks'. These were banks that were Scottish in origin, but with most work conducted in the City of London, and which paid taxes to the UK treasury. It would be obviously preposterous to expect Scotland to bail out London-based banks, given that it does not receive the associated tax revenue.
So with the debt, companies leaving, not getting much tax receipts. How will Scotland pay for the FREE tuition, FREE healthcare, FREE this and FREE that, they like to promise? Is the EU going to be sending them FREE monies?
Your argument seems to presuppose that the Scottish economy will collapse, which seems unlikely. Maybe it will result in a tightening of budgets such that some things which are currently free at point of use will no longer be so.
Finally and this is where I tend to laugh the most. Once Scotland joins Europe and the Euro. How is Scotland an independent state in Europe? How have Scottish people not realised this? Go look at Greece!
People in Scotland are well aware of that. There is a trade-off of sovereignty for stability and economics; Scotland might be subject to EU law, but in exchange it gains access to the single market. It's possible to be both an independent state and agree to international treaties.
Oh and the UK won't let Scotland use the pound. I can tell you that now!
Scotland, most likely yes. But there will be a huge exodus of business from there to England. Not the other way around.
Also wales, again not going anywhere.
What you and many other commenters need to understand is that the populous/economies of the other countries in the UK are tiny compared to England.
If they were to leave, they would almost certainly get bullied in the EU.
The Scots who think they will be independent whilst being in the EU? I don't think so. They would get slapped down harder than a Red Headed Step Child!
I'm afraid to say, that your impressions are incorrect.
Northern Ireland will not be joining Southern Ireland. They still see themselves as British first. Go over there, like I have and you'll see British Flags everywhere.
Also, have you see the situation in Spain lately? Gibraltar is staying put.
I do love hearing these fantasists hoping that the UK crumbles because it left the UK.
You do realise there are whispers within the STRONGER countries in the EU who are now thinking of having their own referendums?
The EU better be be careful as otherwise it's just France, Germany and a whole lot of smaller poorer southern countries and Germany goes bankrupt trying to bail them out!
Lets see what happens when Greece finally explodes!
Don't be afraid to say that, mate, I may be wrong, and I hope that I am. I have relatives that live there, 2nd gen, and some of them do international businesses. If the relations among what will remain from the UK and the EU will be tense, I'd thus be sad.
> [N. Irish] still see themselves as British first. Go over there, like I have and you'll see British Flags everywhere.
I can't be bothered, the UK is not worth the burden of its visa, sorry. Also, you don't want strangers there, do you? But the flag argument of yours mean nothing. There are many areas where there is a flag without a majority identifying themselves with it (turkish Kurdistan, Catalonia, and maybe also N. Ireland?).
> Also, have you see the situation in Spain lately? Gibraltar is staying put.
No, I haven't. But Spain did offer shared sovereignty over Gibraltar, that means something. It will at least be discussed in the near future.
> I do love hearing these fantasists hoping that the UK crumbles because it left the UK.
The UK left the UK, that's a typo, but also a nice coincidence: The UK may indeed have left a part of it, in the EU, we'll see how the things go.
> You do realise there are whispers within the STRONGER countries in the EU who are now thinking of having their own referendums?
> The EU better be be careful as otherwise it's just France, Germany and a whole lot of smaller poorer southern countries and Germany goes bankrupt trying to bail them out!
An examplar of how good the Leave-guys had their facts before voting. I stalked your account too, you're a brexiteer and you try your hand at making some redditesque comments here, and I'd rather not answer, but I do because you're diffonding misinformation.
> Lets see what happens when Greece finally explodes!
Greece has already exploded, what we have is the remains.
Cameron announced the referendum as policy choice in 2013 and at least after the May 2015 election it was clear it would happen. Therefore this was a long time coming. Has any other European country started with a referendum process in the meantime? Do you think just because the UK voted out, suddenly a stampede of referendums will begin, even though it would be much smarter to wait and see how things turn out in the UK? "Fantasists" hoping the other side will crumble exist in both camps... (Let's not forget that Cameron was campaigning for IN. In the future, the only government who would call a referendum must be campaigning for OUT - nobody else would take the risk after what happened in the UK)
The economy prospects are not looking good. Capital is flowing out of the UK, and plans for new investment's are being cancelled all over the place.
Why invest in country that might be behind a trade barrier at any point?
A country that is being consumed by a strong populist movement that is convinced that the EU is worse than the USSR?
Sorry, we have had 70 years of peace and prosperity, and I don't believe that that would be possible if the EU was the monster that the Brexit camp portrays.
The dislocations in the city have begun.[1]
Keep mind that there are 49%+ Britons aghast at what is happening. They didn't vote for this, and don't deserve this.
[1] - FT's pay-wall, just search for "Banks begin moving some operations out of Britain"
and oil dropped in price on the Brexit vote giving some of my fellow North Dakotans a bit of a poor view on the vote as oil was finally back to the "good" range.
They won't be allowed to use the Pound.
So, they will end up like Greece.
I really why people don't see this.
It's the BRITISH parliment in WESTMINISTER who will decide who uses the pound. NOT YOU, Mr/Mrs Commentator.
And they will decide to not allow scotland to use it.